I’ve been working on a formula this season and applied it to Hawaii girls basketball teams. Never posted it, though. Now while we’re waiting for the Division II boys bracket to be unveiled, I crunched some numbers and here’s what the “report card” looks like for the eight teams in the HHSAA D-II field.
>> This is not a predictor of future success.
>> Some teams have stronger W-L rating with weaker SOS (strength of schedule).
A team with below-average W-L rating and SOS could win the tournament. Crunching numbers is about past performance and we have no way to truly prophesize the future when so many variables are at play, such as the return of Layden Kauka to Kohala in the last five games.
BKB 2024-25
Division II
League champions plus remaining field
(Corrects W-L and combined numbers for Hawaii Prep.)
Power ratings (Pupule)
Seabury Hall (25-4)
W-L 0.7414
SOS 0.1034
Total 0.8448
Kohala (17-7)
W-L 0.1494
SOS 0.4167
Total 0.5661
Kauai (19-4)
W-L 0.5562
SOS -0.1121
Total 0.4531
Damien (21-8)
W-L 0.1323
SOS 0.1034
Total 0.2357
****
HPA (19-7)
W-L 0.6592
SOS 0.2273
Total 0.8865
Aiea (16-7)
W-L 0.1305
SOS 0.2174
Total 0.3479
Kaiser Cougars (14-10)
W-L 0.0412
SOS 0.6250
Total 0.6662
Le Jardin (21-10)
W-L -0.0268
SOS -0.0699
Total -0.0967
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